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The World Furniture Market (Part II)

By CSIL Milano

World production of furniture is worth about US$ 350 billion. This estimate is based on Centre For Industrial Studies’ (CSIL) processing of data from official sources, both national and international, that cover the 60 most important countries. In this final instalment of the two-part series, CSIL details the global outlook for 2009.

As a consequence of the opening of the main furniture markets in the last ten years, international trade of furniture has grown faster than furniture production and faster than international trade of manufactures.

Evolution of Wold GDP

Annual precentage change in real terms

World trade of furniture is expected to grow by four percent in 2008 in current dollars. World trade of furniture would then amount to US$ 111 billion in 2008 (see Figure 5).

In 2009 there will be a substantial slowdown of growth for the entire world and a recession in the advanced economies. No growth of world trade of furniture is expected in 2009.

World Trade Of Furniture

Current US$ billion and percentage changes

World Furniture Outlook For 60 Countries

Furniture demand is expected to decrease or to remain stable in 2009 in all large markets with the exception of China, India and South Korea.

The list of countries where furniture demand in 2009 should grow more than three percent in real terms is: China, India, Russia, Egypt and Kuwait.

Moderate growth is expected in 29 countries and no growth in 11 countries.

In 15 countries (the US, Germany, UK, Italy, France, Canada, Spain, Netherlands, Belgium, Portugal, Ireland, Ukraine, Hungary, Latvia and Estonia) furniture demand is expected to decrease.

The cut off date for data in this report was November 20, 2008. The report “World Furniture Outlook 2009” has been presented during the 26th edition of CSIL annual “Forecast Seminar for the Furniture Industry in Italy and Worldwide” which took place in Milan on November 21, 2008.

Forecasts are based on macroeconomic data and projections provided by international organisations (particularly the International Monetary Fund and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) in the first half of November.

At the time of closing of this report the world economic outlook is exceptionally uncertain and downside risks are extremely serious. This caveat applies both to the macroeconomic projections and to the market forecasts in this report.

More About CSIL Milano

CSIL - Centre for Industrial Studies offers independent economic research and consulting Services. CSIL was founded in Milan in 1980 and it specialises in applied economic research, SMEs economics, evaluation and technical assistance to development projects and programmes.

Its partners are economists, engineers, market researchers, management consultants, experts in business organisation, and in policy evaluation.

It offers research and consulting services on economic development processes, with an integrated vision of the micro (local contexts, SMEs) as well as the macro dimension (country studies, global scenarios, forecasts based on econometric models, development of public policies).